Delivery of Humanitarian Aid Sparks Fears of Escalation in Ukraine

A convoy of trucks carrying humanitarian supplies to those living in war-torn eastern Ukraine crossed the border back into Russia on Saturday following what Moscow called a “successful” mission to deliver the aid, but what Ukraine called a “direct invasion” of its territory.

The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), which has been monitoring movements across the border, confirmed in a statement that all 227 vehicles had left Ukraine and crossed back into Russia.

The Washington Post was reporting that Ukrainian Army officials claimed the returning trucks were carrying military supplies, but the OSCE statement notes that all the trucks returned with the “rear cargo tailgate open” and made no mention of any such cargo.

The nearly 200 supply trucks delivered food, water, medicine and other life-saving supplies to the people of Luhansk and Donestk, according to Russia’s Foreign Ministry which had said it was no longer willing to hold the supplies while people suffered under a military “siege” enforced by the Ukraine Army.

Siding with the government in Kiev, both U.S. and NATO officials characterized the movement of the convoy over the border on Friday as a “violation” and warned Moscow of possible consequences for the move.

According to the New York Times on Saturday:

Russia’s decision to send the convoy across the border without an escort by the International Red Cross or final clearance from the Ukrainian government in Kiev had drawn harsh criticism. President Petro O. Poroshenko of Ukraine called it a “flagrant violation of international law.” Another senior Ukrainian official denounced it as a “direct invasion.” And Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen of NATO, in a statement condemning the convoy’s entry, said it coincided with a “major escalation in Russian military involvement in eastern Ukraine.”

However, as an analysis on Common Dreams by former CIA analyst Ray McGovern on Saturday points out, the responses from the West—including messages that came out of the White House on Friday—carry their own risk of further escalating the conflict in Ukraine. According to McGovern:

Before dawn broke in Washington on Saturday, “Ukrainian pro-Russian separatists” – more accurately described as federalists of southeast Ukraine who oppose last February’s coup in Kiev – unloaded desperately needed provisions from some 280 Russian trucks in Luhansk, Ukraine. The West accused those trucks of “invading” Ukraine on Friday, but it was a record short invasion; after delivering their loads of humanitarian supplies, many of the trucks promptly returned to Russia.

I happen to know what a Russian invasion looks like, and this isn’t it.

But even as the trucks returned to Russia, McGovern acknowledged, it’s possible that some key dynamics in the ongoing conflict have begun to shift. He writes:

Regardless of this latest geopolitical back-and-forth, it’s clear that Moscow’s decision to send the trucks across the border marked a new stage of the civil war in Ukraine. As Putin prepares to meet with Ukrainian President Poroshenko next week in Minsk – and as NATO leaders prepare for their summit on Sept. 4 to 5 in Wales – the Kremlin has put down a marker: there are limits to the amount of suffering that Russia will let Kiev inflict on the anti-coup federalists and ethnic Russian civilians right across the border.