Dow tumbles from all-time high as solid jobs report stokes Fed fears

On Wednesday, the bad news was good news. On Friday, the good news was bad news.

Topsy-turvy thinking continued to roil Wall Street, as stocks tumbled from all-time highs set Wednesday because of a surprisingly strong jobs report which, investors wagered, took pressure off the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.

There were 224,000 jobs added to the economy in June, the Labor Department revealed Friday — blowing past estimates of 165,000. The upbeat economic news helped offset worrisome data earlier this week about a widening trade deficit and slowing manufacturing activity that perversely goosed stocks to unprecedented highs ahead of the Fourth of July holiday.

The Dow Jones industrial average fell as much as 232.67 points — or 0.9% — at 26,733.33 in early trades before paring losses to end the day down 0.2% at 26,922.12. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq shed 0.2% and 0.1%, respectively.

Friday’s solid employment numbers “give the Fed some breathing space in the sense that there’s no immediate need now to signal a significant cutting cycle,” Luke Bartholomew, investment strategist at Aberdeen Standard Investments, said Friday.

President Trump, who has relentlessly criticized Fed Chairman Jay Powell for not slashing rates quickly, took the opportunity for a fresh attack on Friday.

“If we had a Fed that would lower interest rates, we would be like a rocket ship,” Trump said. “But we’re paying a lot of interest, and it’s unnecessary, but we don’t have a Fed that knows what they’re doing.”

A quarter-point rate cut still looks to be in the cards, with 98.5% of Fed-watchers projecting it at the conclusion of the Federal Open Market Committee’s two-day meeting on July 31, according to Bloomberg data.

Nevertheless, the half-point cut many hoped for appears elusive with no traders projecting it — down from the 25.5% who forecast the cut on Wednesday.

The Fed will be dissecting a “mixed bag” of economic data later this month in choosing its course, analysts said.

“Employment growth remains a bright spot amid a fairly mixed bag of US data and yet markets have come to expect a cut now so will fall out of bed if they don’t get one,” Bartholomew said.

Earlier this week, it was reported that the US global trade deficit widened and manufacturing activity slowed for the third consecutive month in June.

And there were a few cracks in Friday’s Labor Department report that pointed to some weaknesses in the economy.

Wages grew 3.1% from a year ago in June, down from the 3.2% some expected, while the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.7% — hovering just above last month’s nearly 50-year low of 3.6%.

There were also downward revisions to jobs data from April and May with the Labor Department subtracting 11,000 jobs.

Although traders took a sour look at Friday’s report, some economists were upbeat — focusing on the rebound from May’s dismal jobs report, which initially showed a disappointing 75,000 new jobs added, now revised down to 72,000.

Job gains were seen in most sectors with business and professional services taking the top spot with 51,000 new jobs. Health care nabbed the second spot with 35,000 new jobs. Construction and manufacturing saw gains of 21,000 and 17,000, respectively.

“Net, net, the great American jobs machine restarts its engines after the cautious hiring seen a month ago caused by the escalation in the trade war and rocky financial markets,” said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group.

“Services and manufacturing are both slowing, but the good news is we don’t see a recession on the horizon and continued strong jobs data is one of the main reasons,” said Ryan Detrick, senior market strategist for LPL Financial. “The employment picture continues to be one of the positives to the US economy.”

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