June was defining in New York baseball.
The Yankees posted the best record in the AL to surge to the overall best record in the AL.
The Mets produced the worst record in the NL to fall 11 under .500 and 12 out of first place.
Their first games of July were against each other with the anticipation of another defining month ahead. By the time it ends with the July 31 trade deadline, will the Yankees have obtained the starter they need? Will the Mets have dealt at least one of their own starters, maybe two, possibly three? Will these best of enemies find each other for their most meaningful trade ever?
The clubs have not traded major leaguers since December 2004 (Mike Stanton to the Yankees for Felix Heredia). And they only have one transaction since — the Yanks purchasing Gonzalez German in December 2014. Neil Walker and especially Jay Bruce nearly flipped from the Mets to the Yankees in 2017, but it was the Yanks’ perception that the Mets backed out late, possibly because ownership did not want to be seen as helping the Yankees win.
The Mets should get over that penchant now as they face a month in which they must trade free-agents-to-be Jason Vargas and Zack Wheeler, and seriously consider moving Noah Syndergaard — though, at the moment, dealing Syndergaard is not viewed as likely by the Mets. The goal of trades is to upgrade talent regardless of where the largesse is coming from.
And this organization must thicken the talent.
The Mets’ March/April record the past two years is 32-23, followed by 23-33 in May and (close your eyes, Met fans) 15-39 in June. Many reasons explain the steady decline. The Mets mainly blame bullpen and their 7.53 pen ERA this June was their worst for any month ever. The pen ERA was third worst in the majors last June, eighth worst in June 2017.
I see it as part of the overall talent shortage. A portion of the season expires, relief arms break and the Mets have lacked a quality arm or three to successfully plug in.
They were viewing the next eight games — two vs. the Yankees, three vs. the Phillies and three to open the second half in Miami — as a last gasp to revive their playoff chances. Luis Avilan, Jeurys Familia and Justin Wilson were activated from the IL for the Subway Series and Steven Matz was injected into the pen at least until the Mets need a fifth starter in the second half.
At this point it is mostly delusion to think the Mets — third-worst record in the NL — could rocket back in the race, even with a full complement of relievers.
But a month is a long time. June was long enough that Nelson Cortes was optioned four times to Triple-A in the month and was actually summoned back by the Yankees for the start of the Subway Series. Domingo German is scheduled to come off the IL to start Wednesday against the Mets and return the Yankees to a five-man rotation.
That, and the lingering hope Luis Severino could get back for the final, say, six regular season weeks, will not dissuade the Yankees from hunting rotation help. They landed Sonny Gray, J.A. Happ and Lance Lynn the past two Julys and it would be a shock if they do not add this year too.
With a comfortable AL East lead, the Yanks should prioritize a starter who could start one of the first three games of a playoff series. But Brian Cashman insisted that was not a must, that simply improving the pitching group is the aim. The 2015 Yankees led the AL East by seven games on July 28 and the Blue Jays rocketed by them by improving their team while the Yanks stayed relatively pat. So the Yanks will not just assume they will be coronated division champs.
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If the Indians and Rangers decide they are contenders and never make Trevor Bauer and Mike Minor, respectively, available and the Yanks determine San Francisco’s Madison Bumgarner does not fit their groundball/strikeout profile, the field of potential starters thins. Toronto’s Marcus Stroman is in play. Perhaps Detroit’s Matt Boyd or Arizona’s walk-prone Robbie Ray. Really, with his newfound durability and stuff to pitch toward the top of a rotation, Wheeler perhaps fits the Yankees’ needs best.
But expect Wheeler to end up in Atlanta, Milwaukee, Minnesota or any place that is not The Bronx. The Mets will find a reason — probably better prospects in their opinion elsewhere — to avoid a New York, New York trade connection at this level.
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That is fine if the talent is really better. But if the Yanks have the best offer at some point this month then the locale of the other team should not matter. The persistent June swoons should scream about the need to upgrade talent, regardless from where.
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